New models show that Arctic warming affects jet behavior and promotes extreme weather in the northern hemisphere, including cold spells in winter and heat waves in summer.
Some scientists have previously suggested a connection between Arctic warming and extreme weather conditions, but climate scientists remain divided on the topic.
Recent research has used modern climate models and machine learning algorithms to understand ozone chemistry and simulate current flow.
“We have developed a machine learning algorithm that allows us to introduce the ozone layer as an interactive element in the model and thus reflect the interaction of the stratospheric ozone layer,” said Eric Romanowski, a researcher at the Institute’s atmosphere, Alfred Wegener said in a news release.
Simulation shows that the Arctic is warming, the river flow is slowing and it is less likely to take a straight line parallel to the equator. An updated climate model will determine the combination of melting sea ice and atmospheric waves that help warm the Arctic stratosphere where the jet is located.
Arctic cold air is a motor of reactive currents. As the Arctic’s atmosphere warms, jet winds diverge and currents and waves calm. In winter, large amounts of Arctic air penetrate farther south through a gap, which leads to a dangerous period of cold weather. In summer, larger amplitude waves allow warm air to flow north. Without the mediating effects of colder Arctic air, heat waves in North America and Europe can take weeks. Blocking the flow can also cause unusual weather conditions longer than usual.
Scientists have published their findings this week in Scientific Reports. The findings of this report reflect the conclusions of previous studies that expect winter in North America to be warmer and colder in the future.
“After successfully using machine learning in this study, for the first time, we used artificial intelligence in climate modeling, which helped us get a more realistic climate model,” said Mark Rex. “This has tremendous potential for future climate models, which we believe offer a more reliable climate prediction and thus a more stable foundation for policy making.”