If the world can achieve more stringent goals to limit global warming, thousands of heat-related deaths in 15 major cities in the US, according to one study, could prevent it. The forecast illustrates the high risk of climate change for urban residents.
Under the Paris Agreement, participating countries pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius in the pre-industrial period in 2100 (SN: 1/9/16, p. 6). Maintaining warming of up to 2 degrees C from 75 to 1980 some deaths in a very hot year in 15 cities, compared with the world scenario of 3 degrees, researchers reported online June 5 have heated up meaningful science.
Limiting warming to a tighter 1.5 degrees, however, can save more US citizens from 3 degrees in a very hot year as the death scenario 114-2716, the team reported.
The study is the last to suggest that without additional efforts to help people adapt to heat, “heat deaths are likely to increase in the coming decades,” said climate expert David Hondula of Arizona State University in Tempe, who was not involved in the study. .
Level 2’s objectives are in many respects inadequate, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or the IPCC. The holding of 1.5 degrees of warming will reduce the risk of extreme heat waves, droughts, sea level rise, and habitat loss (SN: 10/27/18, p. 7).
Excessive heat can be fatal (SN: 4/4/18, p. 18), most directly due to heat attacks. Heat is dangerous for everyone, but some groups are more vulnerable than others, especially parents, outdoor workers, and people in low-income areas without AC.
In the new study, clinical researcher Junis Lo from Bristol University in England and colleagues were exploring how various warming scenarios might affect heat-related deaths.
The researchers used mortality and temperature data from 1987 to 2000 for 15 cities in the US in combination with computer models to simulate conditions in various heating scenarios. This group estimates heat-related deaths in very hot years – in each scenario, one death is estimated to occur every 30 years. The cities surveyed included New York, Chicago, Miami, Houston, Phoenix and Los Angeles.
Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees “makes a big difference in urban human life” in the United States, Lo said. “Immediate and drastic reductions in emissions will be very beneficial to public health.”